Local Republicans have a challenge this year — what to do about a twice-impeached former president that is seeking another stint in the White House while simultaneously facing criminal charges.
Talking about Donald Trump is a double-edged sword.
Backing him could alienate the Democrats and Independents that conservatives need to win over in order to successfully beat their opponents but rebuffing Trump might anger the right-wing voters who make up a candidate’s base.
“Trump is a delicate dance for Republican candidates in Massachusetts. Biden will likely beat Trump in the range of two to one in the general election so tying yourself to Trump too much could become an anchor around the candidates’ neck,” said Rob Gray, a veteran political strategist who worked on campaigns for former governors Charlie Baker and Mitt Romney.
Another option?
Political insiders are advising candidates this cycle to ignore or avoid talking about Trump and instead focus on the hot-button issues affecting Massachusetts like the price to house migrants in a large network of state-funded hotels and motels or the exorbitant cost of housing.
Others are urging incumbents or wannabe pols to make this election cycle an early referendum on Gov. Maura Healey’s short time in office, which has already been marked by a number of crises that stretch beyond the influx of new-arrivals.
Holly Robichaud, a Republican strategist involved in multiple campaigns this cycle, said candidates need to “run on the issues not on coattails.” She pointed to Sen. Peter Durant’s victory last year in which he made the Healey administration’s response to arriving migrants a center point of his campaign.
“This isn’t Indiana. This isn’t Florida. This isn’t South Carolina. For Republican candidates, they need to run on the issues so people know what they stand for and not hope for coattails,” she said. “They need to make it a referendum on Maura Healey and they’ll win … Gov. Haley has been not engaged, not delivered on her promise to make Massachusetts more affordable.”
A spokesperson for Healey’s campaign declined to comment and referred the Herald to the Massachusetts Democratic Party.
“Voters understand a vote for Republican candidates is a vote to bring Trumpism to Massachusetts, plain and simple,” MassDems Chair Steve Kerrigan said in a statement to the Herald this week.
Even if a Republican wanted to ride the coattails that are expected to hang down from Trump’s perch atop November’s general election ticket, analysts predict they will not have much of an effect.
Costas Panagopoulos, the chair of Northeastern University’s Department of Political Science, said if the magnitude of Trump’s down ballot effect in 2016 is any indicator, then the impact this year is going to be “very muted.”
“All of that depends on how the election ultimately plays out and how large the margin of victory is for whoever wins the election,” he said in an interview. “When you have larger margins of victory, that tends to have more significant coattail effects. But the margins have been exceedingly small and shrinking in recent election cycles and I expect that to be true in 2024.”
If Republicans do decide to tie their campaign to Trump, focusing on the former president’s immigration stances could be the most beneficial, said Thomas Whalen, an associate professor of social sciences at Boston University.
Whalen said an influx of migrants in Massachusetts and the cost to house them in shelters resonates “particularly among blue collar, kind of working class voters.”
“And especially in times where it’s kind of economically tight with inflation, they feel put upon ‘why are we sending our tax dollars to help these people?’ This is an issue that Trump has hammered home throughout the country and I think that issue is going to be a major one come this fall here in Massachusetts,” he said.
The Trump tightrope for Massachusetts Republicans becomes an even harder act to balance for local candidates running for federal office like John Deaton or Ian Cain, the two conservatives running to replace U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
“It’s that much harder to avoid talking about Trump because you’re gonna be dealing with a federal issue set, and that’s hugely impacted by who wins the next presidential election,” said Gray, who runs Gray Media Group. “The tap dance that local Republican candidates have to dance becomes a walk over hot coals for Republican congressional candidates.”
