It’s not every day you get a Sound of Music reference in a sports blog post, huh?
Over the weekend, the Arizona Fall League wrapped up its six-week schedule of games featuring a mix of prospects from around the big leagues. The AFL was of particular interest to the Phillies as their top prospect, Andrew Painter, ranked No. 32 overall by MLB Pipeline, was slated for his first game action since undergoing Tommy John surgery midway through the 2023 season.
The hope was Painter would be able to shake off the rust, get comfortable on the mound once again, and showcase some of what made Dave Dombrowski and Phils’ brass believe he could have been a big league contributor two spring trainings ago at just 19 years old.
Painter did far more than that.
He made six starts and, while he didn’t pitch more than three innings in any of them, he was electric. In 15⅔ innings, he posted a 2.30 ERA, allowed a meager .189 batting average against, and struck out 18 batters with just four walks. He averaged just under 14 pitches per inning, a remarkable number given he hadn’t pitched in a competitive game in two years.
His fastball topped out in the upper 90s. He featured a devastatingly effective curveball and slider.
In short, the stud prospect we thought would break camp with the Phillies at the start of the ‘23 season appears to be right back where he was then.
The big question Dombrowski and the front office must grapple with now is how to utilize him. Two spring ago, it seemed a foregone conclusion that he would start in the rotation, but there was some question as to how many innings he would be able to throw. He had amassed only 103⅔ innings in 2022, meaning there was no way he was going to pitch more than 140-150 innings in 2023.
While the Phillies aren’t going to put a specific innings limit on him, you can rest assured they are not earmarking 150 innings from him in ‘25. In fact, 100 innings would seem to be the most sensible course, meaning the team will have to be careful in how they unleash him.
Even if Painter dominates in spring training next March, it’s likely some of those innings will come in Triple A Lehigh Valley to start the season, with Painter making starts every fifth day but only pitching two or three innings per start. They almost certainly cannot enter the season envisioning Painter to be their No. 5 starter for the entirety of the season, and if they hope to use Painter in the playoffs (should they get there) they’ll need to factor that into the early-season equation, too.
Dombrowski will approach the 2025 rotation with the idea of Painter contributing at some point, but needing to acquire at least one, if not two more starters to round things out. Anything Painter gives the Phillies next season should be considered found money, with 2026 being his first season as someone who takes the ball every fifth day from Opening Day through the World Series.
We discussed the potential plans for Painter, as well as all the latest Phillies Hot Stove free agency and trade rumors on the latest Hittin’ Season podcast, out today!
https://open.spotify.com/episode/5hKqnlPSIccMXUXMo2lTQq?si=_AUhY5rlT1GwcNztQ5RX0w
