It’s become quite apparent that the Phillies are going to be well represented at this month’s All Star Game in Texas.
Heck, the team’s best player, MVP candidate Bryce Harper, is already in, having finished with more votes than any other National League player during the first round of balloting that ended last week. That means he automatically gets to skip the final round of voting and is already ensconced as the starting first baseman for the NL.
Of course, it remains to be seen if he’ll have recovered from his injured hamstring to play in the game, or whether he and the Phils front office believe it’s best for him not to play. Still, we already know there is one Phillie with his name etched onto the NL roster.
As many as nine other players have reasonable arguments to be considered for the team, and there are one or two that could win the fan vote who are not having All Star-caliber seasons. That’s a testament to you, the fans, who have enthusiastically supported the team with online voting. If you haven’t cast your five votes per day yet, you can do that right here.
Here are the latest numbers in the voting, as of Wednesday morning.
So how many Phillies will ultimately end up on the team? Here are my unofficial odds for each potential Phils All Star to make the squad.
Bryce Harper – 100%
As I mentioned above, Harper is already in. But even if he wasn’t, he’d still be a lock. He was the NL Player of the Month for May and is the leading candidate to win the award for June. He is second among all NL players in Wins Above Replacement, trailing only DH Shohei Ohtani, and a .981 OPS that also ranks second in the NL.
Alec Bohm – 100%
After the first round of balloting, Bohm had collected the second-most votes of any player in the NL. Yep, even more than Ohtani. However, in the second round, the vote totals reset, with Bohm and runner-up Manny Machado starting from scratch. However, Bohm appears to be on a glide path to winning the final round as well. He is certain to be the starter at third base.
Ranger Suarez – 100%
The presumptive NL All Star Game starter still has the lowest ERA of any NL pitcher, even with his rocky outing against the Marlins on Sunday pushing it above 2.00 for the first time this season. That’s insane. It’s possible Arizona manager Torey Lovullo will pick someone else to start the game, but there is no doubt the NL’s best pitcher thus far will be on the squad.
Zack Wheeler – 95%
Wheeler ranks sixth among NL pitchers in WAR and is having another Cy Young-caliber season. His pedigree is well established and, even with Suarez’ dominance this year, everyone knows Wheeler is still the ace of the best starting rotation in baseball. He’s in.
Trea Turner – 90%
Turner returned from the injured list two weeks ago and picked up right where he left off, with an .833 OPS that is fourth-best among NL shortstops this season. Right now, he’s paired off one-on-one with the Dodgers’ Mookie Betts, who has had the better season but is on the injured list until August and won’t play in the Midsummer Classic. So it makes sense that Turner and Betts are currently tied 50-50%. It’s a coin flip at the moment, but even if Turner doesn’t win the fan vote, he’s played well enough to earn the manager’s nod to start the game regardless.
Matt Strahm – 55%
If we were going by most deserving, I think Cristopher Sanchez would be next on this list. But since we’re talking probability, I think there’s a better chance that Strahm and his NL-best 1.4 WAR among relievers gets the nod. He may not be a closer and, with each team needing at least one representative, it’s possible no Phils relievers make the team. Managers like to fill out their roster with the one-team players in the bullpen, so we could be looking at a numbers game exclusion for Strahm and the other relievers, too.
Christopher Sanchez – 50%
Sanchez’ arc from Triple A call-up fodder to top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher with a four-year contract extension under his belt has been remarkable. He has the second-best ERA in the NL and is tied with Atlanta’s Chris Sale for the most WAR. He is deserving of inclusion by Luvollo, but Suarez and Wheeler are more likely. If three Phils starters are asked to participate, Sanchez should absolutely be the third, but his lack of name recognition nationally and the need to create room for players from teams who need a representative could make him a snub this time around. I say it’s 50-50.
Brandon Marsh – 45%
Marsh is a super fun player, one of the truly marketable personalities in the game, and he’s a decent player. I think we now see he cannot hit left-handed pitching consistently, but as a plus-plus defensive left fielder he is a very productive player. However, he is not having an All Star season. That said, the outfield options in the NL this year are flat-out dismal, which is why in the final round of voting, Marsh is just two points behind Fernando Tatis, Jr. There is an excellent chance that, if Phillies fans vote en masse, Marsh could actually start in the All Star Game.
Nick Castellanos – 35%
Castellanos’ overall numbers are dreadful, but he’s been a decent player since the middle of May, despite wild streakiness. But because of the weakness of the NL outfield, as mentioned above, Castellanos is knocking on the door of making his second straight All Star appearance. He’s currently sixth in the six-man voting finals, but is three points out of a starting spot. Again, if Phils fans vote en masse, maybe they have two starters in the outfield.
J.T. Realmuto – 10%
Realmuto is still coming back from a knee injury and is unlikely to play. Therefore, if he were to make the All Star team, he would need to be voted in. Wilson Contreras is likely to be the starter, with Realmuto enjoying a nice vacation with his family instead. I doubt he’ll mind.
Jose Alvarado – 5%
Alvarado has been dominant, but has been overshadowed by Strahm this season. The Phils won’t get any more than one reliever in the All Star Game and, if it’s anyone, it’s probably Strahm.
Kyle Schwarber – 5%
Schwarber should be ready to play in the All Star Game if he’s voted in, but Ohtani is the more-deserving and popular candidate. Schwarber has just one-third of the vote, so he’ll almost certainly be sitting this one out, too.
Jeff Hoffman – 2%
See the above argument against Alvarado’s inclusion. Hoffman has been their best right-handed reliever, but it’s a numbers game.
On the latest Hittin’ Season, we identified five Phillies who are almost locks to go, and speculated further on who the potential sixth or even seventh All Star could be, as well as detail the Marlins series and preview a brutally tough July schedule. Make sure to check out the whole show!
https://open.spotify.com/episode/5qxjLg856rYgFkQYMXnNbp?si=05ka1cBLQmGBGS45T3fm5A
