Celtics
The Celtics suffered two blowout losses this week, but recent history says that shouldn’t be a cause for concern.
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The Celtics got back into the win column on Friday, dismantling the Hornets as they played their reserves in the penultimate game of the regular season.
But Friday’s win came on the heels of two consecutive uncharacteristic losses from a 63-win team, especially for one that’s been as good as the Celtics have been this season. They fell to the Bucks, 104-91, on Tuesday as they trailed by at least 15 points for the majority of the game.
Two days later, the Celtics fell to the Knicks, 118-109, but were losing by 29 when Joe Mazzulla yanked the starters in the final minute of the third quarter.
Both losses came two weeks after a pair of poor showings from the Celtics in Atlanta, losing back-to-back games to the Hawks. They lost the first game after blowing a 30-point lead and lost the second game in overtime as Dejuonte Murray hit the game-winning shot just before the buzzer.
The losses will have zero impact on the Celtics’ seeding in the postseason. They locked up the No. 1 overall seed earlier in April, winning five games in between the recent pairs of losses.
But the recent shortcomings have caused a few to show some concern entering the postseason. Charles Barkley was among those criticizing the team for “going through the motions” in the final week of the regular season, recalling how his 1993 Suns team went the distance in two of their first three series in the postseason before reaching the NBA Finals.
But does it matter? Let’s take a look at the last five champions to see how they performed in the final weeks of the regular season ahead of the postseason.
2022-23 Denver Nuggets
Record in final 10 games of the regular season: 5-5
Around this time last year, the Nuggets were hearing some similar concerns about their title hopes as the Celtics are at the moment. Denver had an unimpressive end to the season after clinching the No. 1 seed in the West, underperforming to the point that it might have cost Nikola Jokic’s chances of winning the MVP for the third straight year.
The Nuggets did pick up wins over the Bucks and Warriors over their final 10 games. However, they lost to the Suns twice and suffered a blowout loss to a Rockets team that finished with the league’s second-worst record.
Denver turned it around right when postseason play started though. The Nuggets defeated the Timberwolves in five games in their first-round series, winning the first three games of the matchup. They went 12-3 for the remainder of the postseason en route to winning their first title in franchise history.
2021-22 Golden State Warriors
Record in final 10 games of the regular season: 6-4
The Warriors went through some bumps and bruises through the homestretch of the regular season the last time they won a title, going 6-7 in their final 13 regular-season games.
A five-game Southeast trip was particularly unkind to the Warriors, going 1-4 in that stretch as they lost to a lowly Magic team and fell to an unimpressive Wizards squad. They were also blown out by the Grizzlies as they were battling with Memphis to get the second seed in the Western Conference playoffs at the time.
Golden State was without Steph Curry for all but one game over that 13-game stretch as he missed time due to a foot injury. However, he returned for the Warriors’ first game of the playoffs and they made quick work of the Nuggets, winning that series in five games. Losing home-court advantage to the Grizzlies didn’t hurt them either as they defeated them in the second round in six games.
Celtics fans likely know how the rest of the story goes after the Warriors defeat of the Mavericks in five games in the Western Conference finals.
2020-21 Milwaukee Bucks
Record in final 10 games of the regular season: 8-2
The Bucks have the strongest record on this list, although the 2020-21 regular season is arguably the most unusual year in NBA history, at least from start to finish.
Still, the Bucks closed out the season strong, picking up two wins against the Nets as both teams jockeyed for the top seeds in the Eastern Conference toward the end of the year. They only rested their starters for the final game of the season.
Milwaukee rode that momentum into the postseason, sweeping Miami in the first round of the playoffs. The Bucks faced some turbulence in the second round, losing to the Nets in the first two games of the series before winning in seven. They took care of business against the Hawks and Suns, respectively, winning both series in six games.
2019-20 Los Angeles Lakers
Record in final 10 games of the regular season: 4-6
When the NBA restarted play in the bubble following its four-month pause due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Lakers struggled out of the gate. They won their first game back, but lost in five of their final seven regular-season games. Their starters played the majority of the matchups as well, with all but one of their defeats coming by double digits.
But the Lakers’ play prior to the bubble allowed them to hold the No. 1 seed in the West that postseason. After losing Game 1 in their opening-round series to the Trail Blazers, the Lakers won in five games. The Lakers won their following three series in a similar manner, defeating the Rockets and Nuggets in five games before beating the Heat in six games in the NBA Finals.
2018-19 Toronto Raptors
Record in final 10 games of the regular season: 7-3
Kawhi Leonard played the majority of the Raptors’ final games of the 2018-19 regular season, looking to get the No. 1 seed but wound up with the second seed instead in the Eastern Conference playoffs. While the Raptors picked up wins against a few playoff teams, they also closed to a Hornets team that missed the postseason twice over their 10 games.
Still, those losses didn’t matter as the Raptors defeated the Magic in five games in their first-round series. They defeated the 76ers in seven games in the second round before upsetting the Bucks in the Eastern Conference finals in six games.
While the Ratpors’ push to win games at the end of the season actually gave them a one-win edge over the Warriors to hold home-court advantage in the NBA Finals, it didn’t play much of a factor. Three of Toronto’s four wins in the series came on the road.
Taking a look at how the Celtics have ended the season.
Kevin Garnett seemingly criticized the Celtics as well following Thursday’s game, writing in a social media post that “These season close out games sets the level for the playoffs! Treat em like game 1 of the playoffs. Set the mf tone!”
The 2007-08 Celtics certainly closed the season strong, going 11-1 in their final 12 games. While they went on to win the title, they struggled early on in the postseason, going the distance in their first two playoff series.
The Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown-led Celtics have finished the regular season strong in recent years. They went 26-6 in their final 32 games of the 2021-22 regular season, going 7-3 in their final 10 games of the regular season that year. They sept the Nets in the first round of the playoffs before eventually reaching the NBA Finals.
Last year, the Celtics went 7-3 again in the final 10 games of the regular season, including a 41-point win over the top-seeded Bucks. They needed six games to beat the Hawks in the opening round before losing to the Heat in the Eastern Conference finals.
The Celtics will still hold a positive record in their final 10 games when the regular season ends on Sunday as a win over the Wizards would mean they went 7-3 over that stretch.
So, if there’s anything we’ve learned, there isn’t really much of a correlation between how a team plays at the end of the regular season and whether they win an NBA title.
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