The last time the Phillies and Braves faced each other was the 2023 NLDS, rich with drama, whining, and intense stares. They’ll meet again today to open the 2024 season with both teams feeling they have unfinished business. As for all their narratives, neither team has successfully won a World Series in the last two years.
Let’s take a look at ten players who could make some impact this weekend, from the guys with solid splits to the universal threats.
Brandon Marsh
A Phillie with great numbers against Spencer Strider is hard to find. But Brandon Marsh has a scrapbook of his favorite Spencer Strider memories: That time Marsh hit a 408-foot home run off him when the Phillies were already down seven runs on Sunday Night Baseball’s “Night of a Thousand Ump Cams”; that time Marsh broke an 0-for-11 streak by legging out a stand-up, lead-off double off Strider that was ultimately wasted because Strider struck everybody else out; that time Marsh lined a two-out single with no one on base and then jogged off the field because no one else could hit Strider in a game the Phillies lost 4-1.
You’re seeing a pattern here, and so am I: Brandon Marsh sure can hit Spencer Strider well, against whom he is a lifetime .364 hitter. Nothing else to read into here.
Whit Merrifield
Well, well, well, after all that hand-wringing and head-bashing into the wall about Merrifield’s signing with the Phillies, he went and had the best spring training of any position player on the roster (.405 BA, 1.143 OPS). And as the old baseball axiom goes, “Having a good spring training means you will definitely have a good regular season—every time.”
The 35-year-old Merrifield was brought in to play against tough lefties in a limited role to avoid the burn-out he suffered from in the second half of 2023. Strider is not left-handed—but Max Fried and Chris Sale are! So Merrifield can just sit there on the bench for awhile, accruing his powers, absorbing the intensity of the scene, whispering wisdom into the ears of younger batters yearning for his veteran experience, all in order for him to come in a little a later with his battery fully charged and send a screaming comebacker back at Braves lefty Aaron Bummer or something.
Zack Wheeler
One of the two NL Cy Young contenders pitching in this opening day contest, Wheeler has handled the Braves’ goosed-up lineup before. His match-up with Strider is such a marquee event for MLB that they bumped yesterday’s game just to heighten the drama. The two aces have never actually faced each other, so this is technically new territory for both of them, if you’re someone who thinks the guy Wheeler is sharing the mound with is going to impact his pitching.
There’s a decent chance of Wheeler and Strider leaving threatening messages to each other on the mound written aggressively with their cleats. Already one of the NL’s best starters, Wheeler spent the spring holding opposing hitters to a .133 BA and developing a splitter to specifically embarrass Mark Canha. He’s been ready for opening day for a while now.
Spencer Strider
No matter how many times you replay the Rhys Hoskins bat slam, Spencer Strider is still a good pitcher. He has presumably come back in 2024 with even tighter pants and an even more intensely hipster mustache. His 36.8 K% from last year was in the top 1% of the league and Braves beat writers are back doing free public relations for him. Also, he’s developed another pitch.
“Every curve ball is different,” Aaron Nola once said. What’s different about Strider’s is that he throws it now, deepening an already sharp arsenal that lets him eat through NL hitters all season long.
Maybe one more watch of the Hoskins clip.
Travis d’Arnaud
d’Arnaud and his brother, Chase, just opened a baseball academy in Long Beach, where they are giving the secret to hitting Zack Wheeler to a new generation of hitters. It’s an alarming development, one the Phillies should probably consider neutralizing by sending a booby-trapped Phanatic, but that’s an issue that can be dealt with after the weekend. Scoff if you must, but the Braves catcher has hit Wheeler the most (.375 BA vs. Wheeler in 29 PA) and he has hit him the hardest (96.2 EV) of anybody in the Atlanta batting order.
Clearly he knows how to read the Phillies ace like few other hitters—something about Wheeler’s sweeper really appeals to d’Arnaud, as he’s pasted out of the ballpark before. None of the other Braves have truly alarming numbers off Wheeler, so hopefully the Phillies pitching lab has caught onto whatever intel d’Arnaud has picked up.
Bryce Harper
Players currently negotiating contract extensions are often said to find the process distracting, and any on-field struggles they then incur are assumed to be the product of their stress. No one’s really sure if that will be the case for a guy who wants a contract extension with eight years left on his deal, since that’s never really happened before. Probably not.
What’s nice about a contract that’s over a decade long is that Harper is always just sort of around, lurking in the shadows and observing conversations until the moment he decides to step into the spotlight.
Nobody’s whispered the phrase “back stiffness” in a few days, so we can pretend that no one is thinking about it, too. Harper’s quiet spring aside, he is more than just the stud at the center of the Phillies offense; he’s a presence around which opposing teams need to plan (or pitch).
He’s also got highlight clips against Spender Strider, as well as Saturday and Sunday’s scheduled starters, Max Fried and Chris Sale (though his 1-for-3 lifetime numbers against Sale are held up by a slippery infield chopper that Sale couldn’t get into his glove). Hey, a hit’s a hit, and any hit against Braves pitching feels like it counts double.
Ronald Acuña, Jr.
Like Harper, no matter the numbers, you can rely on Acuña to be a pain in the ass. There are few Phillies pitchers against whom he has appeared flummoxed and probably no member of their offense he hasn’t outhit. There’s no reason to think that the Braves superstar center fielder won’t bash as many homers, steal as many bases, pump as many fists, and make as many opposing fans apoplectic. In fact, he may be even more motivated than ever: Acuña recently wrote an inspiring article in the Players’ Tribune about his burning desire to play in the World Series, something he didn’t get to do due to injury when the Braves won it in 2021.
I’m sure we can all sympathize.
Orlando Arcia
When we last saw the Braves shortstop, Arcia was not handling his newfound spotlight well. Like many once normal people, Arcia came to Citizens Bank Park a well-adjusted professional with sound skills and a solid resume. He was respected in his community and beloved by his fans. By the time the Braves were leaving, he’d gone mad.
That madness dissipated this spring, when Arcia led all the Braves in home runs with five. But perhaps walking back into the place where Bryce Harper famously stared a hole through his chest will once more reduce him to a prattling mess, screaming back at the crowd until Acuña reeled him in. Perhaps Arcia will use opening weekend as a redemption moment, motivated by his resentment of the local populace. Or perhaps his career .144 BA against Phillies pitching will play a role.
Trea Turner
In 2022, the Phillies signed Nick Castellanos, and he failed to contribute how they’d hoped offensively. In 2023, the Phillies signed Trea Turner, and he failed to contribute how they’d hoped offensively. In 2024, they broke this pattern by not signing any big-name offensive free agents. Problem solved! Now, all that’s left is for Turner to spend an entire regular season hitting at the level he was able to achieve in the World Baseball Classic and almost no other instances last season.
Hopefully, Turner can get into one of those .300/.350/.500 grooves he was able to for so long and by August, he’ll be leading the team in RBI without needing a standing ovation. Turner inherits the “revenge narrative” from Castellanos this season and that bloody tour starts today. Turner, a career .305 hitter with an .864 OPS and 19 homers against the Braves in his career (he also went 8-for-17 vs. the Braves in the NLDS with four extra-base hits and two homers), seems capable of doing so, and what a treat it would be to see him lace liners into the corner for more than two months.
Seranthony Dominguez
The Phillies have one of the better bullpens in baseball, but as far as arms they turn into late-inning, high-leverage situations, there are some without prolonged success against Atlanta: no single team gave Jeff Hoffman more trouble last season and a smaller sample size has yielded higher numbers for Gregory Soto. Matt Strahm and Jose Alvarado have fared better, but no one has a higher K% (28.3) or kept the Braves (.170 BA vs. Dominguez) off the bases more throughout his career than Seranthony Dominguez. In fact, only one Braves hitter has ever hit a home run off him. It’s exactly who you think it is.
The Phillies’ former fireballer has had to fight his way back a time or two and spent the Grapefruit League trying to nail down his consistency. Of course, the strikeout rate was something his critics pointed to last season as it dropped from 29.5 to 21.4%. Dominguez has been trying to think about his delivery less, clear the mechanism, and focus on throwing fastballs.
Of course, there will be more than ten players who take the field this weekend. Maybe Kyle Schwarber tries to punch a baseball into the sky as punishment for yesterday’s weather postponement. Maybe Matt Olson hits a pitch to Fishtown. Maybe Maybe J.T. Realmuto and Nick Castellanos break their regular-season homerless streaks against Spencer Strider.
There’s a reason these two teams keep meeting in the postseason: Their rosters are stacked, in some cases, with the explicit purpose of beating each other, knowing that they are each standing in the other’s way. Months from now, we may be watching them complete a trilogy of NLDS appearances, presumably as the grounds crew is cleaning more thrown garbage off the field in Atlanta (boy, they love throwing garbage). But here in Philadelphia where it’s safe, the season is only beginning, and you never know which all-star, slugger, ace, stud, or absolute unit is going to be the one to strike first.
