Juan Soto is set to hit free agency this winter, and usually when a player of his caliber gets this close to the open market, his team has to make a choice. Do they keep him and risk losing him for basically nothing? Or do they trade him, maximizing his value and potentially setting the franchise up for greater success down the road?
For the New York Yankees, there’s no decision to be made.
The first-place Yankees aren’t trading Soto. Even if Soto is playing like one of the best players in baseball and could fetch a king’s ransom, you can’t put a price on the possibility of championship No. 28. New York has its best team since winning the World Series in 2009 and the club has made no bones about its desire to keep Soto around for the long haul, even if that means sweating it out into the offseason.
So that means we shouldn’t expect Soto to once again headline this summer’s trade season — like he did two years ago or this past offseason — but two months into the season we are starting to get a sense of who else could potentially be on the move.
At this point we can clearly identify a handful of sellers who definitely aren’t going anywhere, along with some likely buyers and a whole bunch of clubs in the middle who could still go either way. So who makes sense as trade chips for the sellers, and who could emerge as candidates if the tweeners’ fortunes don’t improve?
Here are a few players to watch as trade season heats up in the coming weeks and months.
Luis Robert Jr., OF
The Chicago White Sox are wretched, and it’s clear this franchise has a long and painful rebuild ahead of it. Chicago already kickstarted this offseason when it traded Dylan Cease to the Padres, and today Luis Robert Jr. stands as the club’s most valuable commodity.
Last season Robert emerged as one of the top young players in baseball, hitting 38 home runs with 80 RBI, 20 stolen bases and an .857 OPS. This year the 26-year-old has been plagued by injury, but he returned earlier this week from the right hip flexor strain that sidelined him for two months and hit a home run in his first game back.
If Robert stays healthy and plays at a high level over the next two months, then he should be among the most coveted position players on the market. The fact that he remains under team control for another three years at an affordable price after this season should only increase the haul Chicago could command in exchange.
Jesús Luzardo, RHP
On the pitching side, the Miami Marlins have a plethora of young arms and not a lot else going for them. Sitting in last place in the NL East, the Marlins have already made one big trade by dealing reigning batting champion Luis Arraez to the Padres, and by all accounts right-hander Jesús Luzardo could be next to follow him out the door.
Luzardo has been a focus of trade speculation since last offseason. Last season he enjoyed a breakout campaign in which he posted a 3.58 ERA with 208 strikeouts over 178.2 innings. This year hasn’t gone as smoothly — as of this writing he’s got a 5.30 ERA with only 52 strikeouts in 56 innings, but he’s still only 26 and boasts a level of talent that any contender would find appealing. He also remains under team control for two years after this season, so if Miami is looking to bolster their farm system, dealing Luzardo would be a great way to do it.
Pete Alonso, 1B
Even amid the trade speculation that has swirled around Pete Alonso for much of the past year, it’s always felt inevitable that New York Mets owner Steve Cohen would eventually open up his wallet and keep the slugger in Queens for the long haul. But now that the Mets have tumbled into the abyss, it’s beginning to feel like Alonso’s days in New York could truly be numbered.
Alonso’s appeal to prospective buyers is obvious. Since his debut in 2019, there have been few more reliable power bats in MLB. Alonso has averaged 45 home runs per 162 games over his career and is on pace for a similar number this season, with 14 home runs already as of this writing. Even as a pending free agent, Alonso could provide a massive boost in the heart of any team’s lineup and potentially put a World Series contender over the top.
Jordan Montgomery, LHP
Last season Jordan Montgomery was moved at the trade deadline and helped the Texas Rangers win their first World Series championship in franchise history. Could it happen again with the Arizona Diamondbacks?
Following last fall’s championship Montgomery’s big offseason didn’t quite pan out. The left-hander famously didn’t sign until days before Opening Day, ultimately settling for a one-year deal with a player option that will allow him to test the open market again this winter. His tenure in Arizona has gotten off to a slow start, not surprising considering he essentially didn’t have a spring training, but Montgomery obviously still has championship pedigree. If he begins pitching better for Arizona over the coming weeks don’t be surprised if a contender makes a bet he can replicate his success in Texas.
Matt Chapman, 3B
One of the other “Boras Four” free agents, Matt Chapman also signed for less than expected on a deal that could allow him to hit free agency again this winter if he chooses. Unlike Montgomery, Chapman has generally played well for the San Francisco Giants and offers both a good power bat and one of the best gloves at third base in the sport.
Chapman’s contract situation is unusually complex. He has a pair of player options and a mutual option which if exercised could collectively pay him $55 million over the next three years. Given that he’s now 31 and faced a tepid market this past winter, he could ultimately decide to opt in, meaning he wouldn’t necessarily be a rental for his new team. That could impact the asking price for San Francisco, but if the acquiring team really liked him, they could try to not only get the most out of him this summer, but convince him he should stay for the long haul.
Erick Fedde, RHP
While not nearly as well known as Luis Robert Jr., Erick Fedde is an interesting player who has risen from obscurity to become a potentially valuable trade commodity for the Chicago White Sox.
After six largely unsuccessful seasons with the Washington Nationals, Fedde spent 2023 playing in Korea, where he went 20-6 with a 2.00 ERA and 209 strikeouts over 180.1 innings. He then signed with the White Sox on a two-year, $15 million deal and has proven to be perhaps the best bang-for-your-buck in MLB. As of this writing he’s posted a 3.27 ERA over 74.1 innings, making him the best starter on Chicago’s staff.
Considering that he’s set to earn just $7.5 million a year through the end of next season, Fedde wouldn’t just bolster a contending team’s rotation but would do so at such a bargain price that he’d be obtainable by anyone, even smaller market clubs who normally can’t swim in deep financial waters.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B
At some point the Toronto Blue Jays are going to have to take a long, hard look in the mirror. The Blue Jays have been in a contending window for the past four years, but so far all they have to show for it is two Wild Card appearances and no postseason wins. Now their core is starting to get older and the club has spent nearly the entire season in last place. Can they still turn things around? And if not, is it time to break the team up?
If the Blue Jays opt to sell then their two young stars could potentially be on the table. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hasn’t performed to the MVP-caliber standard he set in 2021, but lately he has at least shown he can still make an All-Star impact. Since May 1 and entering the weekend Guerrero had batted .361 with four home runs, a .950 OPS and as many walks (18) as strikeouts (18). He’s also still just 25 years old, and with another year of team control after this one he’d immediately become one of the biggest prizes on the market if Toronto made him available.
Bo Bichette, SS
In a similar vein, Bo Bichette has been one of the most reliable contact hitters in baseball ever since he debuted in 2019 for the Blue Jays. The 26-year-old has gotten off to an uncharacteristically poor start at the plate, batting .238 through his first 58 games, but he also batted .303 over 16 games between May 20 and June 5, an indication he’s begun settling into a rhythm.
Like Guerrero, Bichette will be a free agent after next season, so he could command a larger return than a pure rental. Impactful shortstops are also always in high demand, and with a relatively shallow middle infield class set to hit free agency this winter, a contender might have an incentive to try and land Bichette early if the opportunity presents itself.
The Blue Jays waving the white flag would be great news for Boston, significantly increasing the likelihood the Red Sox can avoid a third straight last-place finish. But whatever their rivals do, the Red Sox have some tough decisions to make of their own.
Kenley Jansen, RHP
The past two seasons the Red Sox have taken a frustrating stance at the trade deadline. Two years ago they sold a bit but also added, and last season they basically stood pat. Both approaches resulted in 78-84 finishes, and though the Red Sox got Wilyer Abreu and Enmanuel Valdez in exchange for Christian Vazquez — a trade that has paid off so far — they ultimately haven’t moved the needle at the deadline, for better or worse.
Whether Craig Breslow will buy or sell more aggressively this season remains to be seen, but either way there’s a good bet Kenley Jansen will be moved. The veteran closer is making $16 million per year, is a pending free agent and is unlikely to return, especially with fellow All-Star closer Liam Hendriks expected to return from Tommy John surgery shortly after the trade deadline. As one of the most accomplished closers in MLB history, Jansen will draw heavy interest from contenders and a reunion with the Los Angeles Dodgers makes all the sense in the world.
Nick Pivetta, RHP
Now what if Breslow decides the Red Sox need to be true sellers to set themselves up for 2025 and beyond? What could that look like? Jansen would obviously be at the top of the list, and other pending free agents like Tyler O’Neill and Chris Martin could be next, but the club’s most intriguing trade chip might be Nick Pivetta.
Pivetta has enjoyed a remarkable career turnaround since being pulled from the rotation for poor performance last spring. The right-hander has evolved into one of the most prolific power pitchers in the game and since moving to the bullpen on May 21, 2023, he’s struck out 192 batters in 145 innings. His walks and hits per innings pitched mark is way down this season too, so Pivetta is clearly building momentum towards a big payday when he hits free agency this winter.
Even as a rental someone like Pivetta could fetch a huge haul in the trade market. Last summer Montgomery landed St. Louis two prospects who currently rank within their system’s top four, one of whom is now also a Top 100 guy across the sport. If the Red Sox were able to bring in a pair of players of that caliber — on top of whoever they pick No. 12 overall in July’s draft — Boston could finish the season with a strong case for one of the top three farm systems in baseball.
The downside is a Pivetta deal would almost certainly come as part of a larger and more aggressive sell-off, which would end any chance the Red Sox could play themselves into the Wild Card picture and make for a pretty grim August and September. That might be painful, but if the trade-off is a more active offseason and an accelerated timetable back to contention, it’s a possibility fans shouldn’t dismiss out of hand.
