And now, the Phillies wait.
We’re entering the 2024 postseason with a far different posture than the previous two. In 2022, the Phils had to scrape and claw in order to end an 11-year October drought with a furious final-week rally that earned them the third wild-card slot, forcing them to play a series against the Cardinals on the road immediately following the end of the regular season. I still don’t know how they got through all that. Last year, things were a bit calmer after earning the top wild-card spot, but they still had to host a wild-card round series against the Marlins in Philadelphia.
This time around, as the No. 2 seed in the National League playoff field, they are idle during the first week of the postseason. Having earned a bye past the wild-card round, the Phillies will play the winner of the 3 vs. 6 matchup, the New York Mets in Milwaukee against the Brewers for a best-of-three series.
Over the last two years, Atlanta Braves fans have lamented earning a first-round bye believing the long layoff negatively affected their offense in their two series losses to the Phils. And while the Phillies enter this week ensuring everyone they will not make similar excuses, they must take a different approach in order to stay fresh. Intrasquad games and interactive workouts will help, but when either the Mets or Brewers come to Citizens Bank Park on Saturday, the Phils must be ready to go.
So, who should Phillies fans want to see? There are solid arguments for both.
The case for playing the Brewers
Despite finishing with 93 wins, four more than the 89-win Mets, and finishing the season with a +136 run differential compared to New York’s +71, the Brewers may be the lesser opponent entering the playoffs. They were a respectable 38-27 in the second half, a .585 winning percentage, while New York went 40-27, a .597 winning percentage. Not much, right? Well, let’s look a little closer.
The Brewers lost their best player, Christian Yelich, for the season with a back injury. The offense doesn’t have a lot of scary names in it, and the big story would be the return of old friend Rhys Hoskins, the only Brewers player to hit home runs off the Phillies in six games against them this year. Rhys hit them against Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, of course. The Brewers can score, for sure, but their lineup is inferior to the Mets’ at the moment.
The Phillies went 4-2 against the Brewers, sweeping a home series and losing two of three in Milwaukee late in September. They went 7-6 against the Mets, losing three of four in New York most recently. The Mets’ starters posted a 3.46 ERA in the second half that ranked fifth in baseball, Milwaukee’s 3.95 ERA ranked 12th. In a short series, winning the Game 2 and Game 3 starter battles could be all the difference.
Milwaukee’s strength lies in the bullpen and their defense. Devin Williams is a monster with a late lead, supported by Trevor Megill, Jared Koenig, Aaron Ashby, Joel Payamps, and lefty-killer Hoby Milner. If they can get 5-6 decent innings out of their starters, that may be enough.
The Mets enter as the hotter team, and they have no fear of playing in Philadelphia or the Phillies. They are not awed. Sure, the Phils took two of three from them at CBP last month, but they were nip-and-tuck games the Phillies survived as much as won. Do you want a five-game dog fight with the Mets in the Divisional Round?
The case for playing the Mets
The Mets and Phillies have played in the same league since New York was introduced as an expansion team in 1962, and over the course of 62 seasons, these two divisional rivals have never played a single playoff game against one another. Because they have both been ensconced in the NL East since their inception, and since wild-card baseball didn’t begin until 1995, it was impossible for the two teams to meet during the first 35 years of that stretch, but it’s remarkable it hasn’t happened since.
And yet, it could if New York can somehow manage to marshal their forces and take two of three from the Brewers in Milwaukee this week. It would be wild to actually play the Mets in the postseason for the first time. The electricity in the stands would power a small city. It would be the marquee matchup and, should the Phils win, would give fans bragging rights over the Mets contingent you know would try to infiltrate the stadium during the series.
The Mets also enter having just played a doubleheader the day before the wild-card round is set to begin. Every game has been a must-win game for the last month, no more so than in the past week, and especially on Monday. For a team like New York, in the postseason for the first time since losing in the wild-card round to the Padres following a 101-win season, you have to wonder if simply getting there is an emotional high they won’t replicate in Milwaukee.
Should they make it through the meat grinder in Milwaukee, will they have enough left in the tank to battle Philadelphia?
And the Phillies would not be in awe of the Mets, either. Just for the sheer spectacle of the series, beating another divisional opponent to get to the NLCS would give the Phillies bragging rights over another top foe. Imagine an offseason of ridiculing Mets fans like we have the Braves over the last two years. If you believe the Phils are the better team, then you should have no fear welcoming the Mets to “four hours of hell” in the next round of the playoffs.
On the latest edition of Hittin’ Season, Justin Klugh, Liz Roscher and I discussed our preferences, recapped that insane doubleheader, previewed the rest of the wild-card matchups, and talked some Pete Rose as well.
