Celtics

Here are four reasons why the Magic would be the better draw for the Celtics.

By Khari Thompson, The Boston Globe

May 2, 2024 | 1:41 PM

Derrick White shook his head and smiled when asked to give a condensed scouting report on either one of the Celtics’ potential second-round opponents. Cleveland and Orlando are still battling to earn their spot. The Cavaliers are up, 3-2, with Game 6 set for Friday night in Orlando.

“Uh, they’re both good,” White said.

It’s unlikely that the Celtics would just come out and say which team they would rather face, but there’s no reason why we can’t take a stab at it.

They should be rooting for a Magic moment. The Celtics went 2-1 against both teams this season, but Orlando is the better matchup.

Here are four reasons why.

1. Orlando is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league.

The Magic made the fewest 3-pointers (903) in the entire NBA this season. They were second-to-last in 3-point attempts per game (31.3) and 24th in 3-point shooting percentage (35.2).

Orlando scores 46.9 percent of its points in the paint, fifth-most in the league.

This could play right into the Celtics’ hands. They love to trade twos for threes. Nobody takes or makes more threes than the Celtics.

The Celtics’ only loss during the Heat series was when Miami made a franchise playoff-record 23 3-pointers in Game 2. The Celtics were unprepared for the barrage, but adjusted quickly in the following games.

The Cavaliers (28.7 percent) have managed to shoot slightly worse than Orlando (30.7 percent) from beyond the arc in their playoff series, but that’s unlike them. The Cavs shot 36.7 percent during the season, which put them in the middle of the pack at 15th.

2. A Game 7 would give Kristaps Porzingis more time to rest.

Porzingis’s status is up in the air as he recovers from a calf strain.

Coach Joe Mazzulla said Wednesday that the Celtics plan on giving Porzingis a week to see how he responds to treatment before reevaluating him.

The scenario that would give Porzingis the most time to rest before the Celtics have to play again would be a Magic win in Game 6. Orlando and Cleveland then would have to play Game 7 on Sunday, and the Celtics would get a couple more days to prepare.

Adding another game to either opponent’s workload wouldn’t be a bad thing for the Celtics.

3. Donovan Mitchell is more of a threat than Paolo Banchero.

Playoff basketball often comes down to star players, and Cleveland’s Mitchell has been more effective against the Celtics than Orlando’s Banchero.

Mitchell averaged 30 points, 7 rebounds, and 4.5 assists while shooting 50 percent from the field against the Celtics in three games this season.

Banchero’s numbers against the Celtics (24.3 points, 7 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 46 percent shooting) aren’t bad, but Mitchell has the clear edge. He has done more and has been more efficient doing it.

Plus, there’s the experience factor. This is Banchero’s first postseason run. Mitchell has never missed the playoffs during his seven seasons. Mitchell has never made it past the second round, but he’s been there twice. He knows what to expect.

4. The Celtics’ loss to Orlando felt like more of an outlier.

The two biggest reasons why the Celtics lost to Orlando on Nov. 24 were that they couldn’t hit threes (7 for 29) and they couldn’t stop Moritz Wagner.

Wagner scored 27 points on 9-of-13 shooting in 24 minutes off the bench. He’s averaging 7.8 points this postseason.

Could Orlando turn to Wagner more in an attempt to exploit Porzingis’s absence? Sure. But he’s generally not a top scoring option for the Magic.

Could the Celtics have another rough shooting night? Absolutely. But they have made more than 38 percent of their 3-point attempts throughout the regular season and the series against the Heat.

Neither factor that led to Orlando’s win is likely to happen again regularly.

Cleveland, on the other hand, won a game in which the Celtics shot 39.5 percent from 3-point range. Although they were outrebounded, the Cavaliers won by limiting turnovers, making 11 steals, and riding a hot shooting night (20 of 42 from three).

Dean Wade scored a team-high 23 off the bench. So far, he has missed the entire first round with a knee injury, but Cleveland didn’t have Mitchell available when it beat the Celtics, and he’s more than capable of replacing that production.