The Celtics being favored to win the series isn’t much of a surprise even though the Heat won last year’s Eastern Conference finals between the two teams. Boston held the best record in the league during the regular season, winning 64 games. It also posted a top-five-point differential in league history in the process, winning all three games against Miami during the regular season.

On the flip side, the Heat enter the postseason hobbled. Jimmy Butler will likely miss the first-round series after suffering an MCL injury on Wednesday. They also won 18 fewer games than the Celtics during the regular season and had uneven play throughout the year.

Still, the fact that sportsbooks view it as a near-certainty that the Celtics will win the first-round series might catch some off guard. Boston was also a heavy betting favorite to win last year’s Eastern Conference finals, holding -500 odds to beat eighth-seeded Miami.

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) also doesn’t view the Celtics as heavy of favorites to win this year’s matchup against the Heat compared to last year’s playoff battle. Entering the 2023 Eastern Conference finals, ESPN’s BPI infamously gave the Celtics a 97 percent chance to beat the Heat. They only have an 86.3 percent chance of beating the Heat this year, according to ESPN’s BPI.

The Celtics and Heat will renew their playoff rivalry for Game 1 on Sunday.