Simulations are a huge part of Bears general manager Ryan Poles’ draft preparation, and he’ll keep running them with the -personnel department and coaching staff as they get ready for the first round Thursday.
But no matter how sophisticated the technology and how many times they run it, the only thing the Bears have control over is what happens at No. 1, where they’re -expected to draft USC quarterback Caleb Williams in a move they hope will change everything for the hapless franchise.
The scenario at No. 9 is uncontrollable and far less predictable. It’ll only begin to become clear in the hour or so leading up to it, and the actual options won’t be known until the Bears are on the clock with 10 minutes to make a decision.
The No. 9 pick is enormous — that seems to get overlooked amid the thrill of getting Williams — and no one wants to make such a weighty call in such a short window. So Poles and his staff have to play out every possible outcome in advance.
They need to know, for example, what they would do if LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers and Penn State left tackle Olu Fashanu are both on the board. But they’re also sold on Florida State pass rusher Jared Verse — oh, and by the way, the Broncos just called with a trade offer looking to jump up from No. 12.
There are endless hypotheticals just like that, and even though 99% of them ultimately won’t happen, the Bears have to be ready.
Tackling uncertainty
It’s widely expected that the Bears will draft Williams first and the Commanders will follow by picking quarterback Jayden Daniels, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner from LSU, but there are a lot of wild cards after those choices.
Most of that uncertainty would benefit the Bears. Quarterback desperation hits its peak on draft day, and that’s a non-factor for Poles since he can get his guy at No. 1. But the Vikings (picking 11th and 23rd), Broncos (12th), Raiders (13th) and Saints (14th) sit outside the top 10 and urgently need a quarterback. The Seahawks (16th) might feel similar pressure.
The more of those teams that trade up to pick a quarterback, the better for the Bears at No. 9. The biggest obstacle to them getting a coveted non-quarterback with that pick is that several teams ahead of them probably aren’t looking for one: the Cardinals (fourth), Chargers (fifth), Titans (seventh) and Falcons (eighth). All of those picks are believed to be up for sale.
The top quarterbacks will go before No. 9 either way. After Williams and Daniels, the consensus is that North Carolina’s Drake Maye and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy will get picked in that range. The Bears need someone to reach for Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. or Oregon’s Bo Nix for a star non-quarterback to slide unexpectedly to them.
If nothing changes, which seems highly unlikely, the Bears probably will be choosing from among the No. 1 pass rusher, the No. 2 offensive tackle and the No. 3 wide receiver with the ninth pick. If the early run on quarterbacks is bigger, those options only improve. Everyone has their preference, but given the roster’s needs, there’s really no wrong answer out of those three positions.
The pros and cons of trading up
Poles also could consider moving up if he believes one of the elite prospects is worth it. The top candidates for that kind of move, which could require the Bears to give up their 2025 first-round pick, are Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., Notre Dame left tackle Joe Alt and LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers.
But trading up like that would be a departure from Poles’ overall philosophy on the draft.
“Once you start falling in love with a player and saying this one guy is going to be a Hall of Famer — which there’s not many of them there — you fall into the trap of being narrow-minded,” he told the Sun-Times last year. “You should really have an open mind on how to approach the draft. There is no certainty. Just look at the statistics.”
In short, Poles doesn’t assume he’s the smartest guy in the room — a perpetual stumbling block for his predecessor, Ryan Pace, as he traded up for Mitch Trubisky, Justin Fields and others. The draft is unpredictable. Every year, prospects fall woefully short of scouts’ and analysts’ projections, and every year some wildly exceed expectations. The Panthers aren’t the only front office that would’ve gotten it wrong by taking Bryce Young over C.J. Stroud last year.
Given Poles’ principles, then, it’s more likely that he trades down than up. That could work if they’re still able to get a good pass rusher or offensive tackle and pick up some extra assets along the way, but the Bears need to address their lack of star players.
They’re coming off a mediocre-to-bad season, and while they seem to be trending upwardly, the roster has a lot of pretty good players and too few game-changers. There are no guarantees, but the odds of landing an All-Pro are better at No. 9.
There are many variables and many directions the Bears could go, but they’re in an unusually -advantageous position either way. It’s rare that a team gets two top-10 picks when its rebuild already is well underway. The Bears were tracking toward playoff contention anyway, and the chance to add two immediate starters — especially the top quarterback in Williams — can help them amplify their ambitions.
