The Keystone State continues to play an outsized role in the 2024 Presidential Election, and this week is the host site for the only debate between major party Presidential contenders, former President Donald J. Trump and current Vice-President Kamala Harris. Harris earlier named her running mate in Philadelphia, just ahead of a Chicago DNC gathering. Trump had his own Pennsylvania surprise, a tragic assassination attempt in rural Butler County, which took the life of a former fireman in the stands and seriously wounded two others.
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When President Joe Biden’s campaign selected the networks, and sites and negotiated a long list of rules for these side-by-side matchups, they picked CNN and Atlanta for the opening forum on June 28th, with a long wait until the second face-off on September 10, in Philly. Team Biden might not have anticipated his performance, or hoped that voters’ memories would be too short in November to remember a bumpy night in June. However, the President’s apparently own troubled memory, cognition and imbalanced performance began the countdown for him ultimately releasing his Convention delegates and withdrawing from the race. An almost immediate endorsement of his Vice-President set the stage for her to step into his shoes, though at present Biden retains the keys and the White House.
Love him or loathe him, most voters and the American public have formed a strong opinion of Donald Trump. His base is solid, though perhaps not a majority, and though he has a casual relationship with facts and the truth, his debate style tends towards confidence, bluster and most typically overstating and rounding up his record. Trump and his staff would have agreed to almost any set of rules to get Biden on the same stage as their nominee. As devastating as they were expecting that contest to be, I think even Team Trump may have overestimated what might be left of Biden’s oratory abilities.
Harris is coming off the heady rush of an adoring Convention, reinvigorated Democratic Party base, and a media coverage honeymoon. Labor Day is now in the rearview, and absentee ballots will soon be in the mail. Advance voting, drop boxes and base turnout efforts on both sides will be in full swing in just over a month.
The vice president now has name identification, paired with an uneven track record from her own prior debate performances. She stunned Joe Biden in the early 2020 Presidential debates, reminding him of his earlier opposition to busing to expedite public school integration. She would later stumble herself, attempting to reposition herself as primarily a prosecutor and law and order candidate.
Now running as the Lady of Joy, she needs to offer a more tangible vision and set of objectives, while simultaneously challenging Trump’s misstatements and telling her own story. In 60-90 chunks and 30-second rebuttals, Harris has the harder lift.
Trump though is his own worst enemy, full of bluster and with a tendency towards bullying, he may actually find the silence of a studio helps to subdue his usual dogmatic demeanor. For Trump, he should let Harris talk more as he did with Biden.
Both of these forums are rules-laden, with no candidate cross-talk or questioning. Trump later suggested a Fox News night, declined by Harris, and the Harris team had proposed another outing on NBC News. This, like the Biden debate, will be a one-and-only.
Trump needs discipline, control, and a bit of his humor and biting sarcasm…no fits, stepping into the Vice President’s space, or attempts to shout over her answers, as the rules will mute each candidate’s microphone when the moderators have finished a question, follow up or offered rebuttal time.
There are 330 million Americans, roughly 150-160 million of those are expected to vote for President, just under 50 million combined watched the two party nominees each give their acceptance speeches. I expect in larger numbers, Americans will still tune in to cheer and jeer their favorite as well as their villain. A President does need to perform under stress, think on their feet, and still manage to lead, but these debates are theater, and not always the best or primary indicator of who is the most ‘Presidential.’ These stakes are high, and your vote might still deserve a bit more input than 90 minutes of spoon-fed attack and laugh lines with snippets of vision from each nominee. That’s just a snack, and to wade through this contest deserves at least a hearty meal of content to digest.
