Wind speeds dropped in 2023
Last year’s winds were unusual, slowed by what Illinois State Climatologist Trent Ford called “a very strong high-pressure system” over Canada that was north and east of Illinois.
For much of the early months of summer, winds blew from east to west, which is opposite of the typical pattern of west to east, Ford says.
“Those winds also brought wildfire smoke to us on a number of occasions,” he says. Additionally, “wind speeds were weaker than normal because of that pattern.”
For instance, the average wind speed at O’Hare Airport from June to August 2023 was 8 miles an hour, the lowest since 2009, according to data Ford provided. The data show “much lower average wind speeds than most of the past 20 years,” he says.
Ford says he has been working with Conroy and Wallin to learn more about the trends and their potential impact on wind power.
It is normal for wind speeds to vary a little from year to year. But researchers have found that wind speeds have slowed over time to an extent that is greater than normal.
Scientists have been trying to understand whether, and how much, climate change is affecting wind speed. Global warming affects wind, and different regions are likely to experience different impacts. How that affects the Midwest, which has an abundance of wind farms producing energy, is one of the things scientists hope to find out.
“For a system planner you have to think not just about one weather year, but you have to think about many weather years — 10 weather years, maybe even 20 or even 30 weather years — so you can capture enough of that variability that we might have before you make your investment decisions,” says Michael Craig, a University of Michigan professor who studies the potential effects of climate change on power system planning.
Illinois has a target of eliminating fossil-fuel power by 2050. As part of that plan, two major Illinois energy laws in recent years bailed out the state’s six aging nuclear plants while providing incentives for solar power development in addition to wind farms.
Wind is the biggest source of renewable energy in Illinois and it’s been a key part of the strategy for snuffing out fossil fuels, especially the once-dominant power source coal, that contribute to global warming.
The decrease in wind power last year caused Illinois’ electricity generation from all renewable sources to decline by almost 3%.
Advocates see potential for solar in Illinois, which is a small producer of electricity in the state, contributing 2% of electricity generation last year. But it has been the fastest-growing electricity source in recent years.
“Yes, we do want more solar,” says J.C. Kibbey, climate adviser to Gov. J.B. Pritzker. “If you look at solar’s growth in the last few years, it’s pretty wild.”
Kibbey says he isn’t concerned that wind energy declined and notes its growth over more than a decade.
“When we zoom out and go back to 2010, we really have, overwhelmingly, a story of rapid growth,” he adds.
Billions of government dollars have been spent on funding wind farms across the United States, including in the Midwest.
Publicly, clean-energy advocates shrug off the importance of a one-year decline, saying it isn’t indicative of the overall trend that shows an explosion of clean energy over the past decade.
However, wind developers have been seeking out research to better understand the future wind speeds and patterns.
Wind, sun bring yearly variability to energy planning
It’s unclear what the future mix of energy sources will be after coal and gas are phased out, says Will Kenworthy, a solar advocate who works with the Illinois Clean Jobs Coalition.
“We don’t know what that system looks like,” Kenworthy says.
Last year was the third time in the last eight years that a reduction in wind speeds led to a drop in Illinois’ wind energy generation. It also happened in 2016 and 2018 when there was a combination of a decrease in wind speeds and almost no new wind farms coming online.
“It’s important that people keep in mind that one year does not a trend make,” says Jeff Danielson, vice president of advocacy for Clean Grid Alliance, a group whose members include renewable energy developers.
State officials would like to see renewable energy generation increase every year. But a greater reliance on renewable energy may mean accepting a higher level of variability based on levels of wind and sun.
Craig emphasized that the variability of wind speeds remains small enough that it shouldn’t discourage investments in wind energy.
“This is not some crisis,” he says. “This is not, ‘Oh, man, we should build less wind.’ We need more wind, we need more solar.”
Dan Gearino reports for Inside Climate News.
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